As always at this time of the season, fans of all clubs in football and rugby spend endless minutes and hours looking over the remaining fixtures, not just of their team, but of those nearest to them in the table trying to predict what will happen next. And we at Leicester Tigers are no different, especially with the fascinating run in that waits ahead of us, and the great unpredictability of what could happen. What is driving this unpredictability is that the team are making such dramatic improvements week on week, that not only do they look a completely different side to the one which started the season, they look a completely different side to what was seen in the previous month! It therefore means that trying to make a prediction that holds stronger than the plans for a European Super League (ahem), almost impossible.
Steve Borthwick quite rightly, as Head Coach and scariest man in rugby, only focusses on the next game in front of him, and how he and the side can get better in that week, and then repeats the process the week after, and then the week after, so you get the picture. He will quite rightly not allow either himself or his players to look further ahead than the next game and get distracted or carried away from the job in hand. Happily, as fans, we have no such worries, so we are allowed to look ahead and try and forecast to the best of our ability what is going to happen in the remaining set of fixtures, and speculate accordingly. And the point that jumps out the most when trying to do so, is just how hard it is to call.
Before making any predictions or beginning to speculate, it is worth remembering that no matter what happens next, the team and the coaching staff have already shown that this is a much better group representing us compared to those of recent vintages . Therefore if results are not quite what we want them to be, we are still in a much better position than we were 12 months ago. Personally speaking, the team is in a better position than I expected them to be at this stage of the season, and therefore I consider the remaining games of the season as almost something of a free hit. Personal aims for me, for the rest of the season, would be to target the top 6, and try and reach the final of the European competition, with anything above that a real bonus and one we would all enjoy and celebrate. If we were to fall short of either of those two aims, then whilst I will be disappointed, it is not the end of the world and we have set some pretty strong foundations going into next season. We therefore, should be mindful of the language we use on social media and not get too carried away if we do lose, or do fall short of top 6.
On paper Tigers have a pretty tough run in, with 6 league fixtures to fulfil as well as a Semi-Final against Ulster at home in the European Challenge Cup, and if successful, a final to follow against Bath or Montpellier. In the league Tigers have local rivals Northampton Saints, Harlequins and Bristol Bears at home, as well as away trips against Sale Sharks, Worcester Warriors and Wasps. Of those games, there are tough tests each week from now until the end of the season, not forgetting the squad are already coming off the back of a European double header of knock-out rugby, and an away trip to old rivals Bath. Quite clearly the squad depth that has started to build nicely is going to come in handy, as they will all be tested in the remaining weeks and games. It is that prior work in getting the squad up to speed that could pay dividends, as I will expect nearly everyone will be required at some point. The returns to fitness of Nemani Nadolo, Julian Montoya, Hanro Liebenberg and Cyle Brink could be crucial factors in the final push towards the season's end.
What is striking about the remaining league fixtures is whom Tigers still have to play – they play 3 out of the current top 4, with 4 of the remaining fixtures against teams higher in the table than ourselves. Even then, the other 2 fixtures involve trips to Wasps and Worcester, which are tough challenges in their own right. Simply put, if Tigers do achieve top 6, or even the higher echelons of a top 4 spot, then they will have earned it and will have done it the hard way. What is also worth considering, given those 4 games against higher opposition, is that they will turn into 8 point games, and could actually have wider impacts on both Tigers, and the teams around them. Win those 4 games, then Tigers will not only clamber up the table, but they also close the gap and drag the others into the mix. It will also be a strong test of Tigers’ home form which has been very impressive all season, with only Exeter and Sale coming away with victories. Given the consistent improvements in Tigers since then, none of Bristol, Harlequins or Northampton will be confident going into those games, nor will they be relishing the trip, Tigers are pretty fierce opponents these days, especially on home turf.
Whilst Tigers have improved this season, they have still struggled on their travels, with only 1 league victory picked up, as well their win in France on European duty, with only a single losing bonus point to their name, which was only achieved last week against Bath. As a result, Tigers have a golden opportunity to improve this and ensure they are not solely reliant on home comforts to get victories. In addition to away victories being hard to pick up, the team is also light on Bonus Points, with only 2 winning bonus points achieved, and the solitary losing one. Given by my reckoning, Tigers have missed out on 7 additional points, with 4 that really should have been secured, Tigers are looking a bit light in that department, especially when compared to other sides around them. In addition, the sloppy last 10 minutes against London Irish, where they missed out on securing the additional bonus point, but also allowed Irish to come away with 2 of their own, really could come back to haunt Leicester in the run-in. Picking up bonus points is a good habit, and one that Tigers need to get into quickly, both in victory and in defeat, as they build towards next season. It could also cost us this season, as it could be the difference between a 6th or 7th placed finish. Whenever Tigers won the league, they always also finished top of the bonus point table. Whilst I agree with Borthwick that ensuring Tigers get back into a winning habit, that had been sadly forgotten about in recent years, is the priority, looking to improve their return in this area is one I hope we are working towards.
So of those remaining games, how will Tigers get on? Well I have put us down for 4 victories – wins against Saints and Quins at home, plus additional victories on their travels against Worcester and Wasps, with 1 winning bonus point achieved. I cannot call Sale away and Bristol at home, given how well Tigers have played recently, plus the constant improvement they have shown, but I have put those games down as losses, with another losing bonus point chalked up. That is 18 points in total, and that would put Tigers on 56 points, and certainly in the mix for a top 6 finish. Will it be enough? Time will tell but Tigers are certainly a team on the up, and one that is attracting comments and admiration from around the rugby world. As for Europe, I again cannot call Ulster at home as it is one that could go either way. Head says Ulster, heart says Tigers. Either way, we are in for a grand finish to the season, and one that I am very excited to observe!