Nine league games into a new season, Leicester Tigers sit mid-table in the Premiership, with both results and performances deeply underwhelming. Finishing in the top four positions to qualify for the play-offs feel a long way off at this stage, with the team not looking like the league champions of 2022. Already there has been a disappointing home loss and a large and painful defeat on the road. In more positive news, the Champions Cup has seen two wins from the opening two rounds of the campaign.
Fast forward further on into the season. A disappointing defeat to local rivals Northampton Saints makes the season feel like it is over. Play-offs are now a distant dream, with the percentage chance of qualifying in single figures and Leicester sitting in 8th position in the table. There is unrest in the fanbase about the coaching team and the running of the club. All feels bleak.
You may think I am speaking about the current season with Dan McKellar at the helm. However I am not. Instead I am speaking about the 2022-2023 that preceded this one. Why? Well because a particular refrain that is being repeated following last Saturday’s disappointing derby defeat is that Tigers are going backwards from last season. Which is interesting, because when reviewing the 2022-23 season, it is only until the final weeks of the previous year did the campaign actually get going. For all the talk that we have gone backwards, Dan McKellar has either a better record than for the majority of last season, or at least a comparable one.
Mixed Results
The first nine games of last season are a case in point. These were with Steve Borthwick in charge before he left to take up the England top job. Borthwick’s departure was quite rightly seen with dismay and disappointment, given he left only a few months after guiding Leicester to their first league title in nine years. However at the point of his leaving, Leicester had only four league wins to their name, sitting in 5th position. This was after his third pre-season at the club, with a squad recruited and pruned to his satisfaction, all playing to his style of play and with a settled coaching set up in place.
By contrast, McKellar faced a different situation. Already new into Leicester Tigers having joined in the summer, he only had his full squad available for five of his first nine games, this being a World Cup year. This also meant that he did not have a pre-season with his whole squad, listening and learning his methods and ideas. Instead they had to come back into the mix, mid-season and having to learn on the job. In addition, the Australian was having to manage without an Attack Coach with Alan Dickens, the man employed to do that job, on leave of absence. But despite arguably being more disadvantaged than Borthwick, he returned the same record of four wins from his opening nine games.
Indeed after last season’s home defeat to Northampton Saints, Tigers sat 8th following five wins from their thirteen games, with a win percentage of 38%. By contrast, after thirteen games of the current season, McKellar’s Leicester had recorded seven victories, at a percentage of 53%. In addition, as we sit here now, Tigers have played 15 games having won eight of them. At the corresponding point of last season, Leicester had seven wins to their name. McKellar currently has a league win percentage of 53%, compared to Leicester’s win percentage at the end of last season was 51%, having lifted this considerably after winning six of the last seven. As we can see, McKellar’s record actually compares well.
Masking Problems?
So why am I bringing up all these comparisons and statistics? Well firstly it is neither to degrade Borthwick. Borthwick’s record at the club puts him in the pantheon of top Head Coaches employed, and his record in turning around a broken club should see him remembered as an excellent operator in the role. Neither is this to defend McKellar or state he is doing an excellent job. He is a big boy operating in a results industry after all.
The purpose of this is to state that the current situation and results are not quite as simple as being made out. This is an exercise in showing that Leicester’s current issues are potentially more complex than just “McKellar is clueless, sack him.” What Richard Wigglesworth and the players did in the last seven games of last season, with the guidance of Danny Wilson, was a fantastic achievement. Winning six of those last seven games and playing with a verve and style was superb and was rightly celebrated at the time and rightly looked back on fondly now. Nevertheless it is also possible that that run of results masked underlying problems and acted in painting over the cracks that had formed.
This is also a reminder that history can be rewritten after the event, and allow us to forget what was actually happening at the time. Perception and reality are two different things. The perception of last season was that of a successful season. However reality indicates, as above, that results for the large part were actually quite average.
A repeated pattern?
With that in mind, it is not a wild statement to say that in the two years since winning the title in 2022, Tigers have been patchy for the most part under all Head Coaches, bar that amazing run under Wigglesworth. As a result, it again shows that if that is the case, then issues possibly run deeper than just McKellar and calls for his departure do not actually address other potential problems.
Perception and reality again need to be addressed. Our perception of Borthwick at the point of his departure was that he was an elite Head Coach. When he left the club, it is fair to state nearly every fan wanted him to stay, despite the start to the season of four wins from his opening nine games and disappointing results and performances. As mentioned, McKellar has arguably been dealt a much tougher hand but delivered the same record. But after his opening nine games he was already facing loud calls for him to be sacked from multiple corners.
The perception of the Australian currently, across a significant proportion of the fanbase is that he is not good enough and that he has to be sacked. As mentioned, he currently has a better record than at the same point as last season. Circumstances may change and at the end of the season this may need to be re-evaluated, but as we sit here now, those calls for his sacking feel unfair.
Fine Margins
Games of top level rugby, like most elite sports come down to fine margins. History is mostly written by the victors, and this can be seen at Leicester Tigers. The title win was richly deserved, with the team finishing top of the normal season with 20 wins from 24 games before winning the play-offs. However fine margins were a major factor of the season. Last minute victories were secured against Saracens and Bristol against all odds, however there is not a lot of difference between the side winning and losing those games. The margins are super tight. There is a small difference between Leicester finishing top and finishing second. This is again shown in the semi-final. Leicester won the game, however it was a game that is remembered for Courtnall Skosan dropping the ball three times, butchering three tries in the process. The difference between Tigers making the final like they did and subsequently winning compared to Saints coming away with a shock win is fractional.
I use this as an example because fine margins are dictating success and failure for Leicester under McKellar. The team sit 8th in the table, yet statistically they look to be performing better across several key metrics. They have the best defence in the league, both for points and tries conceded. They have the third best discipline in terms of penalties conceded. They have the fourth best line-out success rate and the joint third best scrum success rate.
Where Leicester suffer is that they are not scoring enough points to create enough of a buffer for when something adverse happens, for example missed tackles, a bad penalty or a red card conceded. This can be seen in defeats to Harlequins and Gloucester at home, as well as Saints away last weekend. All three games were lost due to fine margins and after Leicester had not taken control at crucial junctions. Instead, they make each game become a lottery and a battle of fine margins each week, mainly due to their attack letting them down and not scoring more points. As a result they lose control of winning the game and it becomes a battle of chance. If they had a better attack, they would be able to turn several of their close defeats to more wins, given how strong their defence is, due to being in a much stronger position when an adverse event happens.
Any Conclusions?
In fairness, the point of this piece is not to draw any firm conclusions per se. It is here to showcase that the current situation that Leicester find themselves in currently, is much more nuanced and complex than is currently being credited. Results this season have been underwhelming yet they follow a pattern that was started last season under Steve Borthwick, and bar a run of seven games, has been the pattern since the title win and not solely the fault of Dan McKellar as it precedes him.
It also shows that whilst Leicester sit 8th and seemingly well off the pace, statistically they appear to be doing much better than that placing with fine margins separating a good season and the disappointing one currently being played out. McKellar does not have infinite time to turn the fortunes around, however current evidence does indicate that he deserves the time to implement his ideas and that calls for his departure are currently premature.