This weekend Leicester Tigers step up their defence of their league title won last season, as they travel to Sale Sharks for their Premiership Play-Off semi-final. Like most knock-out games, the build up to the fixture has been filled with excitement and nerves from both sets of fans, as both know just how close they are to a trip to Twickenham for the Grand Final, and the chance of being Champions of England. But how will Leicester get on?
Underdogs in the fight
Leicester travel to Manchester as underdogs to this tie. Sale have defeated Tigers on both occasions the two sides met in the normal season, with the last meeting seeing Tigers leave the north-west with a 40 points to 5 defeat to show for their efforts. The AJ Bell is a notoriously unhappy hunting ground for Tigers – they have not won there since 2018, and their record prior to then is patchy. In addition, Sale are the home side as reward for finishing second and ahead of Leicester over the 20 league games. They finished 10 points clear of the East-Midlands side, having won three more games over the course of the season.
Indeed, over almost every metric Sale have the advantage over Leicester. Sale have not only won more games in the season than Tigers, they have also scored more points (576 to 560), more tries (75 to 73) and chalked up more try bonus points along the way (10 to 9). In addition, they have been much better than last season’s champions in defence, conceding 13 less tries and 55 less points over the season. To then complete the list, Sale have the advantage of playing at home in the Semi-Finals. There have been only six teams from 37 games that have been able to win away from home in the end of season finale, Leicester of course being one in 2008. As a result, Sale have both statistics and history on their side going into the game. It is now very clear why they are such favourites for making the Final.
After reading all of that, you may be thinking there is no point Leicester even turning up – all the metrics are in Sale’s favour after all on paper. However this is sport, and it is not played on paper and that is why this weekend is so fascinating. For starters, Leicester are now underdogs, a feeling that suits the group down to the ground. Indeed Hanro Liebenberg at the start of the season admitted they enjoyed having that tag as a fuel to spur them on. In addition, the pressure is now off Leicester. Everything written above shows that all the expectation and pressure rests on Sale’s shoulders. Leicester winning would constitute somewhat of a shock, given the context. It therefore allows Tigers to enter the game without any external pressure, giving them more freedom to play their game. How Sale handle being favourites is a question that will determine how the game goes.
Fitness
Leicester not only have the advantage of being underdogs and having the pressure off, they also have their fitness advantage to call upon for Sunday. The East-Midlands side, under the guidance of departing Aled Walters, are by far and away the fittest team in the division, and they know it too. It is this factor that could be the key to how Sunday pans out. In the last game of the regular season at home to Harlequins, Tigers were reduced to 14 men due to the red card shown to Chris Ashton. It meant Leicester had to complete the entire second half a man short. However in that time, they reduced one of the most attacking teams in the division to a sole penalty. In fact, it was Leicester that finished the stronger, scoring a try in the last ten minutes and coming within inches of scoring a second right at the death.
As a result, the game plan that Leicester will employ will be based around using this to their advantage. They will operate against a Sale pack that is one of the few in the league that can outmuscle Tigers and live with their power game. Brawn, therefore, would be a wasted adventure. Leicester therefore have to rely on their smarts, and this is where their fitness comes in. Tigers have experience of coming up against big physical packs in Europe, especially in France to play Bordeaux and Clermont Auvergne. On those occasions, the men from Welford Road lifted the tempo of the match and played at a quicker pace to move the French side around and tire them out. Expect a repeat performance on Sunday, where Leicester look to move the ball around quickly with plenty of intelligent kicking to sap the energy of their opponents.
This is where the East-Midlands side’s bench will come into play. The likes of Joe Heyes, Harry Wells & Olly Cracknell are superb options to have coming onto the field to attack the last quarter, with Jack Van Poortvliert a dangerous exponent of targeting tired legs and minds around the ruck area. The aim for Leicester will be to take the game as deep as possible, in the knowledge that if the game is nip and tuck going into the last 10 minutes, they will fancy their chances of finishing the game strong and delivering the victory required.
Attitude
Leicester enter the play-offs having been in “do or die” mode for the last couple of months. The Saracens at home fixture in February, was the start of this attitude coming into focus, as Tigers came under ferocious pressure on their defensive line throughout the second half yet held out to claim the win, starting this run to the finishing post. They were again tested like this away at London Irish and Gloucester, where their defensive efforts were tested to breaking points, yet the Champions held firm. It was if the team knew their season was over if they conceded a try, so defended their line with a desperation and a desire their opponents could not match.
In reality, Leicester have been in knock-out mode since February as they knew they could not afford a single defeat to make the top four, and have played like a team that has no tomorrow. Sunday’s game is yet another extension of that – the group will not be phased by the occasion of a knock-out fixture.
Psychology
Linked to the attitude is the psychology piece. This is a big game and a big occasion. Leicester, and in particular, this group have now built up a healthy amount of big-game experience over the last three years of being together as well as possessing bucketloads across the board. This covers both winning and losing moments. For whilst the winning Premiership Final from last year is borne into memory banks, it is easy to forget Leicester reached the European Challenge Cup final a year earlier but lost. Playing these big games becomes a habit, and these players are beginning to experience them more and more, building up their knowledge and confidence when they come around.
In addition, across the matchday 23 and wider squad, there are players who have been there and done that by the bucketload. Multiple Premiership winners like Ben Youngs, Dan Cole, Mike Brown, Chris Ashton and indeed Head Coach Richard Wigglesworth know how to negotiate Semi-Finals and how to handle the occasion. The team has experienced internationals like those above, as well as Julian Montoya, Jasper Wiese and World-Cup winner Handre Pollard who have played at the top level and in big games. Indeed the younger members of the team are becoming more comfortable at International level and have played a lot of rugby in Tigers colours now. These players know how to handle big games and the pressure that comes with them.
In contrast Sale are a side that are slightly less experienced in these occasions. Throw in the fact they are favourites and the pressure that comes with that tag, and it is this advantage that Leicester will use when preparing for this game. They will know that when the game gets tight and edgy, they will have the composure to stay calm and stick to the game plan and trust their processes. Not only will their fitness count if it is close in the last ten minutes but their composure and experience too.
Overall this is a fascinating game, which will pit two fantastic and well-matched teams up against each other. Sale rightly go into the game as favourites after a strong season, however Leicester can go into the fixture knowing they have the toolkit available to see them over the line. They have battled adversity to get to this point, and have a squad full of talent, desire and fight to emulate last season. Both teams will rightly believe they can win, with a fascinating afternoon in the North-West to look forward to!