Leicester Tigers head into this weekend’s Premiership Final after finally overcoming East Midlands rivals Northampton Saints in a nerve-wracking encounter at Mattioli Woods Welford Road. Tigers came away with a 27-14 victory which sets up another heavyweight contest against Saracens.
This weekend’s final promises to be a mouth-watering encounter as the top two teams from the regular season go head to head, in the furnace of a final, and the furnace from the sky with temperatures expected to soar in South West London. So as Tigers approach their first Premiership final in nine years, what are some of the big talking points facing the East Midlands side?
Selection Issues
When looking ahead to Saturday’s game, Leicester and Head Coach Steve Borthwick have a few intriguing selection issues to resolve. Firstly at centre, after Dan Kelly was seemingly ruled out of the final after pulling up in the early stages of the semi-final against Northampton. In the time that he had been out prior to last weekend, Guy Porter had stepped into the Inside Centre shirt and performed admirably, despite the thirteen jersey more suited to his skills. If Borthwick wanted to look at another option, then Matt Scott is an ultra-reliable choice to have at your disposal. Strong and physical in defence, he also has a good understanding with Matius Moroni who is likely to fulfil Outside Centre duties on Saturday. It is likely that Porter will get the nod, but Scott will run him close no doubt, and it would not be a surprise to see him selected.
Another intriguing selection dilemma is also in the backs, and this time in the back three department. Freddie Steward has been a stalwart in this position all year, and has really come of age both for Leicester and with England too. However Saturday’s battle is likely to feature two teams who use their kicking game to gain territory and control of the game. As a result, it would not be a surprise to see Freddie Burns reprise his role in the fifteen shirt, like he has in the two previous fixtures between these teams, with Steward coming onto the wing. His ability to play as a second receiver may prove to be crucial, both in taking the pressure off George Ford from a distribution and kicking perspective, but also help Leicester expand their game and help get the ball into the wide channels to test Saracens.
If this were to be the case, it would make the battle for the wing slots even more tough to call. Steward would likely to take the right wing slot, leaving the other side a real battle between Nemani Nadolo, Chris Ashton, Harry Potter and potentially Guy Porter if he is overlooked at twelve. Big games like this call for big players, which would automatically make Nadolo or Ashton favourites. However with the game likely to see a kicking battle for the majority of the game, it does tend to rule out Nadolo, and see Potter with his kick-chase discipline come to the fore. Given the likelihood of tiring bodies and weak shoulders after a bruising encounter, at the end of a long season, played in the heat – it would make more sense to introduce Nadolo off the bench for a twenty minute high-intensity burst. Whilst coming off the bench does not seem to suit the flying Fijian, it would be an understandable choice given the above circumstances.
Forwards Not Straightforward Either?
The last of the selection dilemmas centre around the makeup of the back five of the forwards, with the front row seemingly selecting itself unless injury affected. However both in the lock and backrow positions, there are still discussions to be had. At second row, Harry Wells and Callum Green both started against Saints, with Ollie Chessum coming off the bench for the last quarter, with his physicality having a big impact. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see Borthwick going with Chessum partnering Wells to begin with, and using the physicality that that choice brings.
In the back row, Hanro Liebenberg, Tommy Reffell and Jasper Wiese have been the favoured trio selected. However, given the extra physicality challenges posed by their opponents, George Martin could be selected to fulfil the six shirt, with Liebenberg moving to openside flanker. That would be particularly tough on Reffell who has been magnificent this season, however Martin starting provides both extra grunt and defensive nous, but another line out option which could be crucial against the Londoners, who are sure to test Tigers here.
Underdog Tag Fit Better?
With rare exceptions, Tigers have gone into most games as favourites over their opponents. Indeed the build up to last weekend was mainly focussed on how Leicester would wear the tag of favourites, and could they deal with the pressure that came in a knockout fixture with that on them. This weekend however, it is roles reversal with Tigers now seen as the underdog against Saracens. Indeed a lot of focus in the media has been on the other Semi-Final that took place Saturday, between Saracens and Harlequins, with a lot of subsequent attention on how the London team will fare in the final. This suits Leicester, who much prefer getting their heads down and going about their work in peace, allowing them to fly under the radar somewhat.
Leicester will also be secretly happy that they head into the final with the underdogs tag on them. It provides them with an opportunity to be more fearless and brave in their approach, and should allow them to play with a bit more freedom. Certainly their last few games have seen Tigers make more errors than customary, which does lend a thought that maybe a bit of pressure is creeping in. Playing the final as underdogs, should take the shackles off Leicester and allow them to concentrate a lot more on hitting their game plan. In addition, lessons will have been learnt from the Leinster Quarter-Final in the Champions Cup, where Tigers will know they have the game plan to hurt Saracens, they just need to be brave enough to enact it.
Steve Borthwick Masterclass?
Leicester and Saracens have of course already played twice this season, with honours even between the two sides, with both teams winning their respective home fixtures. Both games have also took place during times of the season where Internationals have been away on either training week duty or during the 6 Nations so not available unless exempted. As a result, there has not been a true match up yet between these two sides, whereby everyone is available for selection. In addition, Leicester have decided to pick 23’s in both games that have seen changes made, with some quirky selections seen. All this leads to the thought that maybe Borthwick is playing his cards close to his chest and has not want to show his hand fully until now.
Given how quirky the selections have been, there is a very strong argument to say that this is the case. Whilst Tigers will not deviate far from their usual game plan, Borthwick is a coach that thinks meticulously about the game, and spends hours analysing both his team and the opposition to ensure no stone is untouched. As a result, it is likely that Borthwick has held some things back to this point, and to ensure his team may catch their opponents by surprise when it comes to Saturday. In a game of small margins, this may the crucial factor that swings it for his side.
If nothing else, Leicester potentially have a slight psychological edge going into the game, because of the previous tactics Borthwick has employed. Whilst Tigers lost in March, it was not with their strongest team available, and in fact, Leicester were not far off winning that afternoon. On another day, and with better decision making and execution, they could have come away the victors. It allows Borthwick and his players to know that there is more to give from them, knowing that a young side ran a still experienced Saracens team close already.
Final Thoughts
Whilst this will not a prediction per se, Tigers will know that the way they play means they will always be in the fight, even if not playing their best. Leicester know that they have the tools to beat Saracens, and can look at Toulon’s victory over the Londoners in Europe as the inspiration as to how to do it. With a master tactician like Steve Borthwick at the helm, there is comfort that a winning strategy can be formed. The key will be improving their performances from recent weeks, and nullifying their opponents strengths, and not let Saracens’ advanced experience of these big games be too much of a factor. If Leicester can do all of that, then they are seriously in the game. Given this is a one-off Cup Final, sometimes that is all you need. Come on Leicester!